Thursday, March 24, 2016
This blog has moved to a new home.
*****See my new Trading The Bias blog here*****
I believe the markets made a key turning point on the 23rd of March 2016. Come and see why.
I have decided to start a blog of my own on a properly hosted site rather than continuing posting here on Blogger.
It has been a good place to try out blogging and to see if I would be able to keep going with it. I must say I have really enjoyed the process and I look forward to continuing on with my new blog. Please come and have a look and show me some support.
It has been a fantastic year for trading this year and I feel that the best is yet to come. I will be showing what I am looking at and what I expect. This is going to be exciting. Come and join me.
I start posting on my new Trading The Bias blog from 26th of March 2016. See here
We have the cross below the 15 day MA on JNK that I have been looking for. I didn't start getting short yet because as I said, you don't want to be entering when the market is in low volume ahead of a holiday. I was correct. The markets opened well down but the algos managed to bring it back to unchanged by close as I expected. We must wait for the confirmed entry, not start guessing. That has been my downfall in the past. I knew the analysis but I doubted myself and started to guess. You won't get the exact bottom or the exact top. We only want the bit in the middle. That is where the money is. We only want high probability setups.
You can see here how the markets regained the opening loss intraday by the close.
Just grabbed this small chart with about four and a half hours to go to U.S. open. It looks like there will be some settling up ahead of the long weekend. See how it looks by close. I don't like to be short in low liquidity. Anything can happen here. Best to wait for confirmation of entry no matter how tempting it looks. Oil back under 40 bucks. Its all about oil! Also VIX daily futures up off little double bottom.
Wednesday, March 23, 2016
I have been getting questions from some traders about what I think of this recent rally. Make no mistake about it, this is still a long term reversal. There is nothing to indicate that the downside risk is over. Can the central bank come in and flood the market with buy orders? Yes absolutely. They have been doing it for at least two years that we know of. It does not seem to be working however.
DJIA - Dow Jones index mth key level is 16000. Still very much in top reversal despite recent rally. Not confirmed until key level breached at monthly close.
SPX - S&P 500 index mth 1900 key level still very much in top reversal. Not confirmed until key level breached at monthly close.
NDX - Nasdaq index mth key level 4150. Still very much in top reversal. Not confirmed until key level breached at monthly close.
NYA - NYSE index mth key level 9500. Lower high lower low with with resistance at flat kijun sen. Not confirmed until key level breached at monthly close.
RUT - Russell 2000 index mth key level 1050. Lower high and lower low. Found support at the kumo. Not confirmed until key level breached at monthly close.
IWM - Russell 2000 index daily key level 105. Turning off resistance. Not confirmed until key level breached.